As I write this, the UK and the Netherlands have both imposed strict lockdowns on their populations overnight. Some more successfully than others it must be said. Investors are now asking, should I buy the dip?
As the majority of the Dutch population work from home or travel to work on bikes, Londoners continue to pile on to the underground and pass the virus around like sweets.
The below image shows a screenshot of rush hour this morning. Spare a thought for all those workers who don’t have an option to stay at home.
The UK has finally done the right thing and locked the population down, its about 2 weeks too late and the damage has already been done.
You only have to look at China and Italy to see that numbers are falling, lock downs work, FACT. They reduce the spread and give health workers a fighting chance of treating the sick.
2 weeks ago today the UK government allowed Cheltenham horse racing festival to take place. 251,000 people from all over the world attended the UK’s premier horse-racing event. The Government was so afraid of loosing all that income from hotels, gambling and alcohol it let an event go ahead which will undoubtedly cost lives and spread the virus both around the UK and internationally.
So will the lockdowns mark the bottom of the stock market collapse?
I am optimistic we are going to see a stabilisation in the stock market. The UK and US have gone to unprecedented measures to stimulate the economy and guarantee wages. Later this week we expect the Feral Reserve to fire up the printing press and start quantitative easing and bond buying. This will mark the start of the biggest gold market bull in history. If you have not invested in gold yet now is the time. Buy physical gold, invest via a Gold fund or as I do trade it via spread betting firms like IG.
This is a once in a lifetime trade and should not be missed.
But back to the stock market. Will we see a recovery and bounce in the stock market? In a word no.
The world as we know it has changed. We are about to go into a recession at best and possibly a depression, the likes of which have not been seen since the great depression of the 1930s. If you don’t know what a depression looks like, now might be a good time to dust off your history books. It’s not pretty and its not good for stock markets.
With the population trapped inside, only able to consume supermarket food, wine and Netflix. The rest of the economy is paralised. The last 10 years has seen the buy the dip mentality, as markets only headed one way due to globalisation and one of the longest booms in history.
The new world is going to look very different, international boarders have gone back up, the likes of which we have not seen since the creation of the EU. International travel has ground to a halt and while the virus is still alive it is likely to stay that way. Even once a county believes it is clear of the virus they wont openly encourage travel from those counties still struggling to destroy the spread.
A good example of this I believe will be the UK and Netherlands. They have had similar infection trajectories (as seen below thanks to the FT). Both countries have managed it equally badly up until now. Both encouraged large gatherings such as Cheltenham and carnival in the Netherlands and both are paying the price now.
Mega City Handicap
However unlike the UK which has one Mega City in London, the Netherlands is a collection of smaller city’s with excellent infrastructure for cycling. Social distancing is clearly not working in the UK. Until we find a solution it will take a very long time for the virus to leave London. The US will have similar problems in its metropolitan areas, not to mention a president loathed to lock down his economy for fear of loosing votes.
So even when some counties have beaten this, they will likely stay in lockdown and keep their boarders closed for fear of further contagion. Then the global economy will only be as strong as its weakest part. This could easily be measured in years not months.
So for now the restaurants shops, bars and business will stay closed for the next few weeks. All large gatherings in the Netherlands will be banned until June.
Will lockdowns become the air raids of the second world war. Every time there is a new outbreak we all get sent home for a couple of weeks to avoid the spread? Quite possibly.
Conclusion: Should I buy the dip?
So in conclusion taking all the above into account I see very little prospect for growth in the foreseeable. We will not see a V shaped bounce as some expert believe. There will be pockets of reinfections which will be enough to keep boarders and travel to a minimum for a while yet. Supply chains will continue to be be disrupted and we can only hope the warmer months will help in the fight against this invisible enemy.
‘Twas the week before Christmas, when all through the house not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse……. Or a deal……
That’s how it feels here at Willow Rivers at the moment, the combination of the election, Brexit and Christmas has made for something of a perfect storm for investors to sit on their hands and keep warm. This blog looks at what investors are missing out on.
However the slowdown does not stop us from doing our job. From a sourcing perspective it’s actually quite helpful.
We have been getting access to deals that would usually have been snapped up long ago by VC funds and institutional investors. This is especially true with property development opportunities at the moment.
I have 3 perfectly structured turn key deals all begging for an investors just waiting to break ground. I am sure they will go as soon as we hear the result of the election.
I am also seeing some incredible disruptive technology investments coming across my desk. We are looking for equity for 2 very exciting established companies both with game changing tech in their own right.
Solar investment in Australia
Rooftop solar is the cheapest and cleanest form of energy there is. You may have noticed if you have been to Australia recently, that most large roofs are not full of solar panels. Strange in such a famously sunny county.
That’s because there is a problem. Their grid was never built for a two-way flow of energy and too much solar causes voltage problems to local electricity grids designed to bring power only one way. That is why grid operators generally have a zero solar export rule for larger rooftop solar systems.
Our partners have solved this problem with the world’s first, award winning eleXsysTM technology and unleashed the considerable solar energy potential of commercial and industrial roof space. Their technology will allow large scale investment into rooftop solar as it makes these ‘urban solar power stations’ bankable to invest in. Get in touch to find out more, this tech has a truly global reach and will further reduce our need for fossil fuel and maximise the use of our renewable energy sources.
The second such technology we are very excited about is a Blockchain technology. VdoChain will put monetization and control back in the hands of video creators by putting video on the blockchain, delivering on blockchain’s promise of providing a safe and secure way to guarantee ownership of an asset in an untrusted environment.
VdoChain puts the video asset on the blockchain, unlocking the power of the blockchain to provide guaranteed, public, auditable rights without requiring third- party intervention.
TV content currently accounts for $500b globally. That an incredible market and its growing all the time. If this company scrapes even the smallest fraction of this figure with its disruptive technology, their current valuation of $20m will look very cheap indeed.
Solar Development Poland.
If you are not on our mailing list you may not be aware that our solar development bond has just reached a very exciting milestone.
We are very proud to announce that we have now reached a significant landmark and that, having been granted all the requisite permissions and with a successful application for a grid connection, the 40MW Chotkow site is ‘ready-to-build’.
This is great news for us and means we will now proceed to the construction phase of the site and thus it should reach commercial operations date (COD) in early 2020, in line with our planned schedule.
With this ready-to-build milestone reached and the Power Purchase Agreement in place, the site now has a value of circa £4.8 million before we proceed to construction – although please be aware that these values are not fixed and are subject to change.
So the project is well advanced, value has been added through planning being approved and we are still accepting bond investors. So if you have between £10,000 and £2,500,000 and would like to receive 10% pa for 3 years secured against 3 utility scale Polish solar projects please get in touch.
Proptech App: Cureoscity
Finally, I have joined the team at http://cureoscity.com/ a UK base Proptech firm who are revolutionising the way we interact with our office space. I will be helping them roll out their new building app across Europe. Already installed in a number of iconic London commercial buildings, including the Leadenhall, One Angle Court, and White City Place. This technology to be the norm in most major city commercial offices over the next few years, you heard it here first.
The technology and App starts with door access control into the building, no more key cards around your neck. Your phone becomes the key.
The app will also allow you to book and pay for services and products around the building. Book a meeting room, order lunch to your desk, book a test drive in the latest Electric Vehicle, browse gym classes. You will also be able to arrange external deliveries to your desk and check on the latest events, weather and live travel updates.
It will integrate with the Internet of Things (IoT) to create a true smart place experience. The app will not only increase the experience and productivity for the end user but also help the building owner to create a more diverse and interesting place to work.
The apps insight and analytical capabilities will help building owners design spaces we want to spend time in and motivate us to work at our most efficient.
It will also help optimise the buildings heating and lighting as it learns how people move and interact with their spaces across the day.
So thats what investors are missing out on this Christmas….. If you haven’t already done so, make sure you sign up to our newsletter to get all the latest investment opportunities and updates.
To celebrate 10 years of Willow Rivers we are having a Willow Rivers Wealth Tech Rebrand and change of focus. We will continue to offer cutting edge renewable energy projects to our corporate and retail clients and we will continue to help developers raise funds for sustainable projects and developments in the UK and overseas.
I am very excited to announce that we will now also be making a more conscious move into the technology side of the business. Ever since the implementation of the first smart meter and micro inverter on our solar panels, we have seen how greentech, fintech and proptech has revolutionised the renewable, property and green investment landscape. (more…)
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